March was another month of stagnation in the manufacturing sector. Following an increase in January and a decline in February, the industrial confidence indicator (IRGIND) rose by 1.0 pts month-over-month in March. This increase is due to a rise in order levels and an expected increase in production volume. The IRGIND currently stands at -3.2 pts, 2.4 pts higher than a year ago.
For many months, we have observed alternating, slight monthly increases and decreases in the industrial confidence indicator. The annual changes in the indicator recorded each month are also insignificant. No upward or downward trend is emerging in the IRGIND, and the percentage of manufacturers unable to forecast the development of their economic situation in the short term (3-4 months) is on the rise. Though all balances are clearly higher than a year ago, the forecasts of the surveyed manufacturers show no signs of optimism. We see no signs in the survey results of a way out of this impasse.
Researcher:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl